Saturday, October 5, 2024

The seasons are changing, lets go to war!

Below is a rough list of Arab Israeli wars and their start dates. The country whose forces first invaded/attacked is in brackets. In some cases the precise cause is complex and not reflected clearly by the act of invasion.

(Israel) Suez Crisis - October 29, 1956
(Israel) Six Day War - June 5, 1967
(Egypt) War of Attrition - July 1, 1968 [no invasion took place]
(Egypt / Syria) Yom Kippur War - October 6, 1973
(Israel) First Lebanon War - June 6, 1982
(Lebanon) Second Lebanon War - July 12, 2006
(Israel) First Gaza War - July 8, 2014
(Gaza) Second Gaza War - October 7, 2023

To these I would add, 

(Palestinian attacks) November 1947 Palestine Civil War
(Arab invasion) May 15 1948 War

Looking at this list, I conclude that the start and end of summer are danger zones of Middle Eastern wars: Of the eight wars I've listed, three started in October and four in June or July.

Summer is very hot in the Middle East, so it makes sense that wars are more likely to start when summer ends: Around October. Logistically, water supplies could be a big issue for Middle Eastern armies in Summer. 

Some of these wars involve non-state or semi-state actors and I am not sure how you decide what is a war and what is not. If you were only looking at territorial invasions, then the 1968 War of Attrition could be ignored. 

These timings are not unusual: Iraq invaded Iran on September 29,1980 and then Kuwait on the August 2, 1990. So it would seem that summers are definitely a time to worry about war.

By the way, Hitler invaded Poland September 1 1939 and Russia on June 22, 1941. Napoleon invaded Russia on June 24, 1812. 
The Japanese invaded China twice: First in September 1931 and then in July 1937.


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